How the NFL's Top Teams Tackle Their Achilles' Heels: A Deep Dive into Key Weaknesses

Hey there, sports fans, it's your favorite armchair quarterback back at it again. I mean, come on, who are we kidding? Even the NFL's crème de la crème have some chinks in their armor. Let's rewind a bit. Remember last season when the Giants, outta nowhere, made the Vikings' pass defense look like Swiss cheese in the wild-card round? Oh, but plot twist! The Eagles said, "Hold my beer," and showed the Giants what real football looks like in the divisional round. Fast forward to Super Bowl LVII, and the Chiefs are out here playing 4D chess with jet sweeps, making the Eagles chase shadows. Ah, the sweet, sweet taste of poetic justice.

Now, sometimes, you see these flaws sneaking up during the season. But then, there are times when you're like, "Hey, even Stevie Wonder saw that one coming!" (No offense, Stevie). So, using my eagle-eye, my Sherlock-esque deduction skills, and okay, maybe a bit of last season's track record, let's play a game of "Spot the Achilles' Heel" for our playoff hopefuls.

Alright, before y'all start throwing digital tomatoes at me, defining "playoff contender" is like trying to nail Jell-O to the wall. As it stands, we've got a whopping 14 teams in the AFC that think they've got the mojo. But hey, we need to slice and dice this list, or else we'll be here till the cows come home.

Enter ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Your trusted crystal ball or just another fancy algorithm? Who knows? But it did give us seven teams each from the AFC and NFC likely to strut their stuff in the playoffs. And just to set the record straight – no, these aren't my personal picks for 2023. I mean, I love a good debate, but let's save the angry DMs for another day, shall we?

According to the almighty FPI, we've got a few switcheroos this year. Say adios to the Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Giants, and give a warm welcome to the Lions, Jets, and Saints. Alright, enough with the chit-chat. Let's dive into the heart of the matter, starting with our pals in Baltimore. Ah, the Ravens, perennially strong, but rumor has it they've got a bit of a situation this year... Stay tuned!

1. Baltimore Ravens

So, let's chat about the Ravens, shall we? ESPN's FPI thinks they've got a 54.8% shot at the playoffs. Not too shabby. Super Bowl? A modest 6.8% chance. Hey, gotta start somewhere. But hold the phone, what's this I see? Their biggest flaw is the pass rush. Yeah, yeah, I know what you're thinking. "Pass rush? That's like the bread and butter of a team!" Well, my friend, apparently the Ravens missed that memo.

Now, don't get me wrong, they're not exactly panicking over there. General Manager Eric DeCosta has been chillin', watching old Ravens players like Yannick Ngakoue and Justin Houston sign up for new adventures in 2023. And guess what? Not a peep about snagging a seasoned pass-rusher for their own team. Talk about confidence in their front seven, huh?

So, who's supposed to step up to the plate? Say hello to David Ojabo and Odafe Oweh, the tag team of the edge. Oweh's got 8 measly sacks and 26 knockdowns across his first two seasons, while Ojabo practically waved hello from the sidelines last year due to an Achilles issue. But now, these two are about to get busy. Plus, they've got veteran Tyus Bowser in the mix.

Look, the Ravens have a history of nurturing defensive talent like a proud plant mom, so there's hope that one of these young guns will shine. But let's be real, with stakes high as a giraffe's neck, this could turn into a sore thumb on Baltimore's roster. Especially since they're shuffling the deck on their cornerback spots. Maybe DeCosta's trade magic will strike again if Oweh and Ojabo decide to take a leisurely start.

2. New York Jets

Oh boy, Jets fans, remember the good ol' days? Like when they traded for Brett Favre and thought they hit the jackpot? Yep, way back in '08, they were 8-3, riding high on Favre's magic arm. Then, disaster struck. Torn biceps. Favre turned into a pick-throwing machine, and the Jets went from playoff dreams to nightmares. Yikes.

But wait, Aaron Rodgers is in town now. He could throw with a medieval gauntlet and still outshine Zach Wilson. But here's the deal: keep Rodgers upright, or it's déjà vu all over again. Last season, Rodgers' digits dropped thanks to a pesky thumb injury. And the Jets? Well, they're still waking up in cold sweats from their 2022 Wilson debacle.

Now, did the Jets beef up their O-line in the offseason? Ehh, not exactly. They've got some options on paper: Duane Brown, Mekhi Becton, and a cast of others. But it's like preparing for a gourmet meal with an empty fridge. Brown and Becton are like those leftovers you forgot about in the back. One's fresh out of surgeries, the other barely played last season. Turner? Late to the party, didn't even get drafted. Rookie Tippmann? Maybe a hero, maybe not.

Look, the Jets aren't doomed, but let's be honest, they're gambling with a 39-year-old quarterback. Protecting Rodgers should be top priority, but their plan feels shakier than a Jenga tower on a roller coaster. And if one wrong move means Rodgers takes a hit? Well, it could kiss their title dreams goodbye for decades.

3. New Orleans Saints

Hey, guess who's in the "Experienced Folk Club"? The Saints. Their cap situation? More twisted than a Rubik's Cube. And that front office? Big fans of swapping draft picks for veteran players. So, no surprises here: the Saints are practically a walking history book.

Last season, they held the record for the "Most Elderly Team on the Field." Seriously, they could've hosted bingo night during halftime. Ten players over 30, clocking in over 300 snaps. Some guys are back for another round, like Andy Dalton's BFF, Derek Carr. Age isn't the issue, though. Tom Brady's Bucs proved ancient warriors can still dominate.

Thing is, ancient warriors need squires. Youngsters to hold their swords. And that's where the Saints struggle. They tried to draft top talent, but it's like hunting for unicorns. Their draft hauls are more hit and miss than a blindfolded dart thrower. Veterans might lead the charge, but the kids gotta step up.

Let's face it, with the NFC South in flux, the Saints could take it. But here's the catch: the old guard has to shine, and Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara need to get their mojo back. Or else, these greenhorns won't cut it.

4. Minnesota Vikings

Alright, folks, let's dive into some Minnesota mayhem. The Vikings had a jolly 13-4 season, but their secondary? Well, it was leakier than a colander. Sixth-worst pass defense, and they gave Daniel Jones a victory lap in the postseason. Talk about a parting gift.

So, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah & Co. knew what was up. They drafted defensive backs, but fate wasn't feeling it. Lewis Cine broke a leg, Andrew Booth's knees weren't having it, and Dantzler? Well, he danced right onto the injury list. Even Evans had a hat trick of concussions.

Now, they're in makeover mode. Patrick Peterson, Duke Shelley, and Chandon Sullivan? Off to greener pastures. Starting safety Camryn Bynum's on the hot seat, battling it out with Josh Metellus and Cine. Only stalwart Harrison Smith's keeping his seat warm.

But wait, new corner Byron Murphy's in town. And the competition's fierce – Evans, rookies Mekhi Blackmon and Jay Ward, all gunning for glory. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores is all about the aggressive coverage, and these guys? It's sink or swim.

So, there you have it, a glimpse into the NFL's quirkiest flaws and foibles. It's like a reality show, but with helmets and touchdowns. Who's got the edge? Only time will tell, my friends. Stay tuned for the next chapter of gridiron drama!

5. Detroit Lions

Alright, folks, let's talk Lions. ESPN's got 'em at a 65.4% shot for the playoffs. Not too shabby, huh? Super Bowl? 9.9% chance. Might sound like a long shot, but hey, miracles happen. Now, here's the deal: their biggest flaw is the secondary. And you know what they say, you can't win much with a leaky faucet, I mean, secondary.

Last season? The Lions went 9-8, not too shabby on paper, right? But guess what? Their pass defense? Well, it was like a sieve in a rainstorm. They grabbed the spot for the NFL's QBR allowed basement. And to put things in perspective, no other team in the bottom five of the QBR rankings from 2019 to 2022 pulled off what the Lions did. A winning record with a porous pass defense? That's like wearing flip-flops in a blizzard.

But hold on, don't worry, they're not just twiddling their thumbs. This offseason, the Lions went makeover mania on their secondary. Seven DBs played over 40% of the snaps last year? Well, four of 'em flew the coop: DeShon Elliott, Jeff Okudah, Mike Hughes, and Amani Oruwariye. Bye-bye, fellas.

So, what's the game plan? It's like a revolving door of fresh faces. Will Harris, the utility knife of the backfield, is here for a whirl, and Jerry Jacobs is sliding into a reserve role. And here's where it gets interesting: as many as four new starters in the secondary! New faces, new dreams, right?

Cameron Sutton, Steelers' star of 2022, is probably gonna snag one cornerback spot. The other? Well, brace yourselves, it could be former 49ers' corner Emmanuel Moseley. But hold up, Moseley's nursing a torn ACL, and his status? Listed as "still on the PUP list."

Let's not forget the slot and safety roles, the wild cards of the secondary saga. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is the big cheese for one of those, but rookie second-round prodigy Brian Branch? He's knocking on the door. If Branch keeps wowing 'em in camp, he might just get the spotlight. And that's not all, folks—Gardner-Johnson could shimmy back to safety, letting Tracy Walker reclaim his starting seat after an Achilles tendon twist.

Look, it's a shuffle, it's a dance, and it's definitely gonna be a rollercoaster. But if these fresh faces can get their groove on, if they can transform from wet-behind-the-ears to seasoned defenders, then my friends, the Lions might just roar into the playoffs in 2023.

6. Cincinnati Bengals

Okay, Cincinnati faithful, buckle up. ESPN's got you at a 76.4% chance to hit the playoffs. Feeling the excitement? Super Bowl? A juicy 17.1% shot. Not too shabby, huh? But hold on to your chili dogs, because there's a catch—the Bengals' Achilles' heel? The secondary. Yeah, that's right, the drama's in the backfield.

Now, here's the scoop: Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and Ja'Marr Chase? They're gettin' a fancy paycheck boost, roughly $75 million more than their rookie deals. But you know what they say, "More money, more problems," right? The Bengals are dancing a money jig while trying to keep the ship steady.

The plot thickens. Veterans packed their bags this offseason, leaving a void. Bye-bye Eli Apple, Jessie Bates, Vonn Bell, and Tre Flowers. Poof! Over 3,100 defensive snaps vanished into thin air.

Fear not, for the cavalry arrives. Nick Scott, who wowed during the Rams' Super Bowl escapade in '21, signed up to command one safety spot. Dax Hill, first-round gem of '22 with 131 snaps under his belt, is stepping into the limelight. And remember Mike Hilton? He's back in the slot, while Cam Taylor-Britt is aiming to rule the roost. Oh, and keep an eye on Brian Branch, the rookie second-rounder, he's got potential stardom written all over him.

But wait, there's a wildcard in the mix, and his name is Chidobe Awuzie. This former Cowboy turned Bengal was strutting his stuff last season, playing like he was possessed by an All-Pro spirit. Then, bam! Torn ACL in November. But if he returns in top form—53.4 passer rating against him before the injury—Bengal fans, you might be doing the victory dance.

Look, the Bengals are playing musical chairs in the backfield, and this dance could go either way. Will they conquer the dance floor or stumble over their own feet? Only time will tell if the secondary can hold its ground. But if they do, if they rise from the rookie ashes and become defensive dynamos, 2023 could be the year Cincinnati returns to glory.

7. Seattle Seahawks

Alright, Seahawks fans, let's dive into the numbers. ESPN's got you at a 47.8% shot for the playoffs this year. It's not the most reassuring number, but hey, in football, anything can happen. Super Bowl? Well, it's a bit of a long shot with a 4.8% chance, but remember, sometimes those long shots pay off big time. Now, here's the deal: the Seahawks' biggest vulnerability? Linebackers. Yeah, the heart of the defense is showing some cracks.

Recall how last season ended? The Seahawks' linebackers, Cody Barton and Tanner Muse, found themselves in a web of confusion courtesy of Kyle Shanahan's misdirection. Brock Purdy, the 49ers' quarterback, seemed to have a GPS for finding receivers for massive gains. In the wild-card round, the 49ers averaged over 11 yards per pass and almost 6.0 yards per carry, practically dancing their way to a 41-23 victory. The punting? It was more like a cameo appearance.

But wait, the linebacker blues were no one-time hiccup. Even before that painful playoff loss, the Seahawks had issues. They gave up more passing yards to running backs and tight ends than any other team. Their average of 6.1 yards after the catch allowed was second worst in the league—ouch. Only the Cardinals were in a worse spot. And don't even get me started on their rush defense, which ranked a dismal 24th in DVOA.

So, what about 2023? Well, the scene's changed a bit. Barton and Muse are out of the picture. Jordyn Brooks, their former first-round pick, is on the mend from a torn ACL he suffered in December. He's expected to miss the beginning of the season, but he should join the party later on.

Now, let's talk about the potential saviors. First up, the legendary Bobby Wagner. This Seattle star returned home after a year away in Los Angeles, and guess what? He had a revival. Even though he's 33 and faced cap casualties two years in a row, he still brings those instincts to the field and made only a 1.4% tackle whiff rate last season. If he keeps up the pace he set in LA, he could be a significant upgrade.

But there's another spot to fill, and it could land on the shoulders of Devin Bush, a 2019 first-round pick who never quite took off in Pittsburgh. Bush showed promise as a rookie, but Pittsburgh never fully trusted him in coverage on third downs. Then he had an ACL tear in 2020. Unfortunately, his explosiveness hasn't been the same post-injury. The Seahawks might have to protect him when it comes to pass coverage duties.

And wait, there's a curveball: Jamal Adams. The Seahawks have Quandre Diggs and picked up Julian Love from the Giants. Adams might not be the best in man coverage, but he's got athleticism and versatility. Could he be used more as a linebacker? The only catch is keeping him healthy, as he's missed a significant number of games due to various injuries.

In a nutshell, the linebacker saga continues in Seattle. If Wagner keeps shining, if Bush steps up, and if Adams brings his A-game, the Seahawks could flip the script. But if these pieces don't fall into place, 2023 might just be another tough year for the linebackers.

8. Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles fans, gather 'round. ESPN's giving you an 80.8% chance to make the playoffs this year. Sounds promising, right? And how about that Super Bowl? Well, with a 25.5% chance, the dream is alive. But, let's address the elephant in the room—the Eagles' weak spot? Defense up the middle.

Picture this: in baseball, they say being strong "up the middle" is crucial. In football, it's not as gospel, but it's still pretty important. Now, let's focus on the 2023 Eagles. The NFC champs had a major exodus in their ranks. Five defensive starters, all playing positions in the middle of the field, are gone. We're talking about defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White, and safeties Marcus Epps and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Add the departures of Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph, and it's like a missing middle party.

Let's break it down level by level, starting upfront. Javon Hargrave was a force to be reckoned with, disrupting the interior and still racking up 11 sacks last season. They've invested in Georgia tackles Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis in the past two drafts, hoping to replace Hargrave's impact. Unfortunately, Hargrave is a league above those replacements.

Then there's linebacker. Historically, it's not a position Philly splurges on. So it's no surprise that Edwards and White were let go. The logic? It's easier to find useful off-ball linebackers than other positions. Alex Singleton and Nate Gerry were no strangers to blame in Philly due to their coverage woes. It's a thin line between saving money and letting a position deteriorate, and GM Howie Roseman's navigating it year by year.

But hey, there's a Georgia product on the horizon—2022 third-rounder Nakobe Dean is set to take on a bigger role. They've also acquired Nicholas Morrow from the Bears. And recently, Roseman signed veterans Zach Cunningham and Myles Jack to one-year deals, crossing his fingers they bring back their earlier glory. The catch? Both were cap casualties due to coverage struggles elsewhere. The hope is that one of them fits the bill, but Roseman might keep shopping for linebackers as camp cuts happen.

And now, let's talk safety. Reed Blankenship steps in for Gardner-Johnson, a change that was majorly felt last season. Despite a dominant defensive line, veteran linebackers, and high-performing cornerbacks, the switch from Gardner-Johnson to Blankenship turned the Eagles' defense topsy-turvy. The defense's QBR allowed went from 28.2 to 52.7 with the switch. If Blankenship can angle his tackles better and hold up in coverage, the split-safety formations might just work. Terrell Edmunds, shifting from a box safety role in Pittsburgh, joins him.

But watch out for the rookie third-round pick, Sydney Brown, and don't sleep on Justin Evans. Evans rocked it early in his career with the Buccaneers before injuries sidelined him. If he's back to his old form, the Eagles could be in for a pleasant surprise.

Ultimately, a lot hinges on what happens upfront. If the defensive line keeps delivering pressure at a high rate, things could work out fine. If not, the Eagles' new defensive coordinator, Sean Desai, might just be feeling the heat due to those missing pieces in the middle.

9. Los Angeles Chargers

Alright, Chargers fans, here's the scoop. ESPN's giving you a 50.1% chance to snag a playoff spot this year. It's a toss-up, but hey, in football, that's all part of the excitement. And the Super Bowl? Well, there's a 6.2% chance you'll be cheering on your Chargers on the grandest stage. Now, let's tackle the elephant in the room—the Chargers' Achilles' heel? Run defense.

Flashback to 2021 when the Chargers missed the playoffs, not due to a timeout fiasco, but rather their inability to halt the run. Remember that? So, what did they do? They made moves. They brought in Khalil Mack through a trade and signed veteran tackles Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson. It was all part of a plan to level up a run defense that ranked a woeful 30th in rush defense DVOA in 2021.

Fast forward to 2022. Good news? The Chargers made the playoffs and did improve their run defense. Bad news? They still finished 29th in rush defense DVOA and couldn't hold back the run in the playoffs. Case in point: the Jaguars ran for 117 yards on 21 carries, including a 25-yard gain on a fourth-and-1 conversion that set up the game-winning field goal. Ouch.

But let's be fair. The Chargers upped their game at the line. They went from 25th to first in "power" rushing situations, according to the FTN Football Almanac. They didn't have Joey Bosa for a significant chunk of the season, and Johnson landed on injured reserve in November. So, it wasn't all doom and gloom. Their issue? They let too many big runs slip through. They surrendered 18 runs of 20-plus yards, the fourth most in the league, trailing only the Lions, Bears, and Texans—two of which weren't exactly fighting for the championship.

Guess what? The Chargers aren't sitting idly. In 2023, they're beefing up the run defense once again. Say goodbye to Drue Tranquill and hello to Eric Kendricks from the Vikings. Kendricks was an All-Pro in 2019 and is quite the linebacker, but he struggled in coverage last year, slipping from ninth to 25th in plays made percentage. With Kenneth Murray not quite living up to expectations, Kendricks has to be the anchor of the defense.

Here's the deal—Coach Brandon Staley's leaning into the Vic Fangio defense style. Lighter boxes, gap-and-a-half defenders—sound familiar? This might mean the Chargers won't be run-stopping dynamos, but that's alright. With Patrick Mahomes in the division, they don't need to be the 2000 Ravens. They just need to limit big plays on the ground and come through in critical run-stopping situations. If they can manage that and rank somewhere in the middle of the pack in rush defense DVOA, they'll have checked off their biggest to-do.

Hey there, Bills Mafia! ESPN's got you at a 69.8% shot for the playoffs this year. Not too shabby, right? And how about that Super Bowl dream? With a 16.5% chance, you might just be cheering on the Bills in the big game. But let's face it—the Bills aren't without their weak spot. So, let's dive in and talk about their biggest hurdle: the offensive line.

Remember when the Bills had arguably the deepest O-line in the league? Those days might be fading away. As Josh Allen, Tre'Davious White, and other young stars signed their second deals, the inevitable cutbacks ensued. Last offseason, the Bills went all-in, opting for a massive contract for Von Miller instead of spreading the funds across multiple roster spots. It's a reasonable choice, especially after Miller's performance in Super Bowl LVI. However, when Miller tore his ACL in December, the decision might've stung a bit.

Brandon Beane, the GM, saw this coming. He secured left tackle Dion Dawkins and center Mitch Morse on significant deals, but the cost-controlled players meant to complement them didn't quite live up to expectations. Cody Ford, a 2019 second-rounder, struggled across various positions before being traded to the Cardinals. Spencer Brown, a 2021 third-rounder, regressed after a promising rookie season. Beane brought back guard Ryan Bates on a restricted free agency deal, which turned out decently. But Dawkins, typically a top performer, had a subpar season, landing in the top 10 in the NFL for penalties and blown block rate among tackles.

Changes have been afoot. Veteran Rodger Saffold was out, and in came Connor McGovern, formerly of the Cowboys, on a three-year deal. The price tag? A little over $21 million. McGovern's in, Bates is facing competition from second-rounder O'Cyrus Torrence at right guard, and Torrence could push Bates into a utility role if he shines in camp. The Bills are focusing on getting bigger and stronger, hoping to boost their running game's effectiveness. If they can keep Allen in tip-top shape after his elbow injury last season, this new offensive line setup could be the ticket.

So, Bills fans, keep your fingers crossed for a solid offensive line performance. If Allen stays protected and that running game takes off, this revamped line might just be the key to Buffalo's success.

11. San Francisco 49ers

Hey there, faithful 49ers fans! ESPN's giving you a 79.4% shot at the playoffs this year. Looking good, right? And let's talk Super Bowl dreams—a 20.9% chance you'll be celebrating your team on the grandest stage. Now, let's get to the nitty-gritty. The 49ers' kryptonite? It's the health of their offensive stars.

Remember last season's grand finale? The 49ers seemed to stick anyone not named Josh Johnson at quarterback and still soar. Even with Trey Lance mostly sidelined due to a fractured right ankle, Kyle Shanahan's offense ranked among the league's finest. And the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey in October? Oh boy, things got even better. Jimmy Garoppolo was on fire until a broken left foot in December put a halt to the show. But enter seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy, and the party continued.

However, the NFC Championship Game saw Purdy's right elbow injury put a damper on the parade. Yet, the core crew's back in 2023, ready to rock. With Purdy expected to make a triumphant return and start in Week 1, the question arises—can the 49ers be unstoppable on offense once again?

If they can keep their key offensive players as healthy as they were during the second half of last season, I'd say it's a strong possibility. But let's be real—keeping everyone in tip-top condition might be a tall order. Consider the health history of these key players around Purdy:

- McCaffrey's missed 23 games between 2020 and 2021 due to various injuries.

- Deebo Samuel's sat out 15 out of his 66 possible pro games with hamstring, ankle, and knee troubles.

- George Kittle's missed 15 games over the last four seasons, including half of 2020.

- Trent Williams hasn't had a full season since 2013, sitting out around 2.5 games per season on average. (That pesky 2019 season when he held out to force a trade away from Washington doesn't count.) And don't forget, while the others are in their 20s, Williams is a seasoned 35.

Sure, these game-changers can turn the tide when healthy, and Brandon Aiyuk's another talented playmaker on the roster. But let's face facts—having all of them on the field for all 17 regular-season games is a lofty ambition. If they each manage around 15 games, and their absences don't overlap too much, the 49ers should be fine. But if McCaffrey's sidelined for a big chunk of the season or Williams takes an extended hiatus, the team might not seem as plug-and-play as it appeared in 2022.

12. Dallas Cowboys

Howdy, Cowboys fans! ESPN's giving you a 65.1% shot at the playoffs this year. Not too shabby, right? And the Super Bowl? Well, there's a 13% chance you'll be cheering on your Cowboys on the grandest stage. Now, let's saddle up and talk about a chink in the armor—the Cowboys' Achilles' heel: kicking.

For a team loaded with offensive and defensive firepower, the special teams are casting a long shadow of concern. No surprises that Brett Maher left after his postseason struggles—missing five out of six extra points will do that to your job security. But what's concerning is the Cowboys haven't found a reliable replacement.

Enter journeyman kicker Tristan Vizcaino, who initially snagged the gig, but his camp performance left much to be desired, leading to his release. And now? The only kicker on the roster is Brandon Aubrey, a former Toronto FC draft pick. He's kicked 32 of 37 field goals and 57 of 59 extra points in two USFL seasons, but he's never attempted an NFL kick.

Maybe the Cowboys will recruit a seasoned veteran, especially as camp competitions lead to player cuts in the coming weeks. Brett Maher joined Dallas in mid-August last year and had a solid season before his extra point troubles. Opting for an unknown kicker isn't a sin, but given the Cowboys' Super Bowl aspirations this season, it's a bit surprising that team owner Jerry Jones hasn't been more aggressive in seeking a proven kicker.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars

Greetings, Jaguars fans! ESPN's giving you a 67.2% shot at the playoffs this year. Exciting, right? And as for the Super Bowl? Well, there's a 6.7% chance you'll be celebrating in style. Now, let's dive into the Jaguars' Achilles' heel—their biggest flaw: coverage over the middle.

Now, we knew the Jags' defensive weak spot would be a focus. Some might argue for the pass rush, given their 28th-ranked sack rate last season. But, hold your horses—that's not what has me most concerned. Pressure? Yeah, they got it, ranking eighth in the league in pressure rate. The problem was turning those pressures into sacks, where they ranked 31st. However, with Josh Allen and Travon Walker—two first-round picks—on the edge, the sack success might just improve, alleviating those pass rush worries.

But it's covering the heart of the field that gives me more pause. Last season, Mike Caldwell's defense ranked 26th in QBR allowed on throws between the hashes. And only the Titans allowed more completions there than the Jags. Oh, but that's not all. Jacksonville managed to own the worst QBR allowed on throws to tight ends—yikes, right? Opponents averaged a mind-boggling 9.6 yards per attempt when targeting tight ends. That figure, my friends, is the fifth-worst over the past decade. And remember how Travis Kelce danced all over them in the AFC divisional round? Yeah, that one stung.

Now, most teams would start pointing fingers at their linebackers, but the Jags already put their money where their mouths are. Foyesade Oluokun, a tackling machine in the run game, is one of the highest-paid off-ball linebackers in the game. They even grabbed Devin Lloyd in the first round last year, and while he had a promising start, things went south, leading to Chad Muma taking his starting spot. But there's hope. Lloyd's back in 2023, and he's got to step it up. And if the pass rush revs up, it'll help across the board with coverage.

14. Kansas City Chiefs

Hey there, Chiefs fans! ESPN's banking on a 77.3% chance you'll see your team in the playoffs this year. And hold onto your hats—there's a 21.6% chance you'll be shouting for your Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Now, let's dig into what could be a chink in the armor—the Chiefs' Achilles' heel: their dependence on Travis Kelce.

Here's the deal—the Chiefs are banking on a future Hall of Famer who's been a picture of health, never missing a game due to injury since 2013. Kelce's the real deal, and at a position where production usually takes a nosedive by mid-30s, he's defying all odds. A season away from being the greatest tight end ever? That's the buzz, and at 33, he just became the first tight end aged 33 or older to snag 1,000 receiving yards since 1965. That's insane, and there's nothing suggesting Kelce's about to drop off the grid.

Sure, history tells us even legends fall prey to Father Time. Tom Brady took a step back. Jerry Rice couldn't cut it in 2005. Julio Jones slumped. Greg Olsen's decline was abrupt. And while Kelce might be a few years away from that, what if he gets injured or starts to slow down? Suddenly, the league's most pass-happy offense might be looking at Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their go-to guy. Skyy Moore's making noise, but can he be the top dog in a Super Bowl run?

Luckily, Andy Reid and the Chiefs probably won't face this in 2023. They haven't drafted Kelce's heir, but they're actively targeting receivers in the draft. With Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney, and Justyn Ross in the mix, Reid's likely prepping for a post-Kelce era. But for now, Kelce's got this.